Toward a Multipolar Supply Chain Resilience Framework: Scenario-Based Evidence from the 2026 Iran–Israel–US Conflict
Geopolitical Risk & Supply Shock, Strait of Hormuz Disruption, Multinational Enterprise Strategy, PESTLE-M Framework, Trade Network Diffusion.
AuthorsAbstractCompounding geopolitical shocks — from COVID-19 to the Russia– Ukraine war and the 2026 Iran–Israel–US conflict (Operation Epic Fury, beginning 28 February 2026) — indicate that global supply chain vulnerability is shifting from isolated sectoral shocks toward simultaneous, cross-sector cascades under an emerging multipolar order. Existing supply chain resilience and geopolitical risk frameworks, however, largely conceptualize geopolitical shocks as isolated sectoral disruptions rather than cascading multi-sector systemic events, leaving unclear how energy and technology disruption channels interact structurally under conditions of multipolar military escalation. This study aims to explain how the 2026 IranIsrael-US conflict propagates simultaneously across interconnected strategic sectors of the global supply chain and to develop a preliminary conceptual framework for managing this new category of risk. Using a qualitative embedded case study combined with formal scenario analysis of credible public secondary data — including the Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, IEA Oil Market Reports, ACLED conflict-event data, and MSCI GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence — this research identifies six interlinked disruption channels: (1) energy market shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; (2) disruption of high-technology supply chains centered on Israel's semiconductor and R&D cluster; (3) GCC commodity disruptions in aluminium, sulfur, fertilizers, and LNG; (4) collapse of aviation and logistics networks; (5) financial contagion; and (6) food and water security spillovers. Two scenarios — swift resolution (within eight weeks) and protracted conflict (over six months) — are used to test the scenario-robustness of strategic responses. This study extends supply chain resilience literature by introducing a multipolar resilience perspective that explains how simultaneous geopolitical shocks propagate across interconnected strategic sectors, and proposes the Multipolar Supply Chain Resilience (MSCR) framework as a dynamically calibrated architecture of six strategic pillars, each accompanied by testable research propositions. Beyond its theoretical contribution, the study offers multinational enterprises (MNEs) scenario-robust strategic anchors for navigating deep geopolitical uncertainty.
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